基于SAPSO-BP模型的黄陵一号煤矿瓦斯含量预测及影响因素

Prediction and influential factors of gas content in Huangling No.1 Coal Mine based on SAPSO-BP model

  • 摘要: 【目的】基于瓦斯赋存的多因素影响和现场实践,以及瓦斯赋存理论研究,利用协同优化的方法,结合粒子群优化(PSO)和模拟退火(SA)算法,进一步提高瓦斯含量预测的准确性。使PSO算法具备较大概率跳出局部极值点的能力,同时提高SA算法的收敛速度。【方法】通过结合PSO算法的全局搜索能力和SA算法的局部搜索能力,有效地克服传统方法在瓦斯含量预测中的局限性。并在此基础上,建立SAPSO-BP神经网络模型,利用已有的瓦斯含量数据对未知瓦斯含量区域进行预测。该模型结合了PSO和SA算法的优势,以及BP神经网络的学习和拟合能力,能够更准确地预测煤层瓦斯含量。【结果及结论】结果表明,黄陵一号煤矿2号煤层六盘区、八盘区及十盘区瓦斯含量范围分别为1.54~5.40 m3/t、1.86~3.70 m3/t及1.45~4.41 m3/t。BP、PSO-BP、SA-BP以及SAPSO-BP瓦斯含量的预测算法精度分别为0.317、0.593、0.129以及0.957,得到最佳瓦斯含量预测模型为SAPSO-BP瓦斯含量预测模型。利用SAPSO-BP瓦斯含量预测模型预测矿区未知瓦斯含量区域,得到矿井瓦斯含量等值线。

     

    Abstract: Based on the multi-factor influences of gas occurrence and field practice, combined with theoretical research on gas occurrence, a synergistic optimization method integrating Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithms was employed to further enhance the accuracy of gas content prediction. This approach enables the PSO algorithm to have a higher probability of escaping local extremum points while improving the convergence speed of the SA algorithm. By combining the global search capability of the PSO algorithm with the local search capability of the SA algorithm, the limitations of traditional methods in gas content prediction are effectively overcome. A SAPSO-BP neural network model was established to predict gas content in unknown areas using existing gas content data. This model integrates the advantages of the PSO and SA algorithms, as well as the learning and fitting capabilities of the BP neural network, enabling more accurate predictions of coal seam gas content. The results indicate that the gas content in the sixth, eighth, and tenth panels of the No. 2 coal seam in Huangling No. 1 Coal Mine ranges from 1.54~5.40 m3/t, 1.86~3.70 m3/t, and 1.45~4.41 m3/t, respectively. The prediction accuracies of the BP, PSO-BP, SA-BP, and SAPSO-BP for gas content are 0.317, 0.593, 0.129, and 0.957, respectively, with the SAPSO-BP gas content prediction model being the most accurate. Using the SAPSO-BP gas content prediction model, the gas content in unknown areas of the mining area was predicted, resulting in a contour map of the mine's gas content.

     

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