基于LSTM-GRU神经网络的煤矿区开采沉陷预测

Prediction of mining subsidence in coal mine area based on LSTM and GRU neural network

  • 摘要: 【目的及方法】大面积矿产开发造成了区域环境和资源破坏,岩土体位置和形态改变,从而引发地面沉降、塌陷等地质灾害,严重影响了矿区经济社会发展与生态环境修复,且严重威胁人民群众的生命财产安全。随着人工智能技术的不断发展,人工神经网络在矿区开采沉陷预测研究领域应用逐渐广泛,故提出基于LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory,长短期记忆网络)与GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit,门控循环单元)神经网络的矿区开采沉陷预测方法。以某矿工作面的监测数据为例,建立LSTM、GRU及其组合(SUM)的时间序列预测模型,以实现矿区开采引起的地表下沉值和水平变形值预测。【结果及结论】LSTM、GRU及SUM预测结果表明,总体上,对于地表下沉值预测,LSTM、SUM优于GRU,LSTM最优,其均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error)分别为14 mm、1.5%;对于地表水平移动值预测,LSTM、SUM优于GRU,LSTM最优,其RMSE、MAPE分别为25 mm、6.9%;对于单次预测,精度的稳定性由高到低分别为SUM、LSTM、GRU,RMSE、MAPE的最大值与最小值均为GRU。

     

    Abstract: Large-scale mineral development has caused regional environmental and resource damage, geotechnical body location and morphology change, thus triggering geological disasters such as ground subsidence and collapse, which seriously affects the economic and social development and ecological environment restoration in mining areas, and seriously threatens the life and property safety of the people.With the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology, artificial neural networks are widely used in the field of mining subsidence prediction.We propose a mining subsidence prediction method based on LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)and GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit)neural networks, and take the monitoring data of the working face of a mine as an example.The monitoring data of a mine face is used as an example to establish a time series prediction model of LSTM,GRU and its combination(SUM)to realize the prediction of surface subsidence and horizontal deformation caused by mining in the mining area.The prediction results of LSTM,GRU and SUM show that: on the whole, for the prediction of surface subsidence, LSTM and SUM are better than GRU,and LSTM is optimal, and its Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and RMSE are better than GRU,and LSTM is better than GRU,and LSTM is the best.Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)are 14 mm and 1.5%,respectively; for the prediction of the surface level movement value, LSTM and SUM are better than GRU,and LSTM is optimal, and its RMSE and MAPE are 25 mm and 6.9%,respectively; for single prediction, the stability of accuracy from high to low is SUM,LSTM,and GRU,and the maximum and minimum values of RMSE and MAPE are GRU.

     

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