基于STGCN模型的煤矿深部开采诱发微震预测研究

Prediction of deep coal mining-induced microseismicity based on STGCN model

  • 摘要: 深部煤炭开采会导致微震(MS)事件发生,在威胁工作人员人身安全的同时,也会对基础设施造成破坏,因此定量预测MS事件的时间、能量和位置(Time Energy and location, TEL)对于预防微震事件至关重要。为此,阐述了应用时空图卷积网络(STGCN)预测深部煤炭能源开采诱发的MS事件TEL的方法,通过MS传感器之间的距离确定传感器网络的邻接矩阵,构建传感器网络图,使用GCN提取图中的时空细节,并基于现场MS监测数据对模型进行检验。结果表明,余弦相似度(C)在0.90以上,平均相对误差(MRE)在0.08以下,模型对MS事件的TEL具有较好的预测效果,对于保证深部煤炭开采的安全性和作业效率至关重要。

     

    Abstract: Deep coal mining can trigger microseismic(MS)events, which threaten the personal safety of workers and damage infrastructure, so quantitative prediction of the time, energy, and location(TEL)of MS events is crucial for the prevention of microseismic events.A method of applying spatio-temporal graph convolutional network(STGCN)to predict the TEL of MS events induced by deep coal energy mining is described.The neighbor matrix of sensor network is determined by the distance between MS sensors, the sensor network graph is constructed, and the spatio-temporal details in the graph are extracted using the GCN,and the model is examined based on the on-site MS monitoring data.The results show that the cosine similarity(C)is above 0.90 and the mean relative error(MRE)is below 0.08,and the model has a good prediction effect on the TEL of MS events, which is crucial for ensuring the safety and operational efficiency of deep coal mining.

     

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