基于COA-CNN模型的综采工作面煤与瓦斯突出灾害预测研究

Coal and gas outburst disaster prediction of fully mechanized working face based on COA-CNN

  • 摘要: 随着煤矿开采持续向深部延伸,工作面面临的地质压力不断增大,瓦斯释放和积聚的风险显著增加。此外,深部矿井中煤层的物理性质和构造特征也与浅部煤层存在一定差异,进一步增加了煤与瓦斯突出的潜在风险。本研究基于某矿数据,首先应用箱线图(Boxplot)与多重插补法(MI)进行数据清洗,结合相关系数(Correlation)筛选影响因素,建立基于Boxplot-MI-C的煤与瓦斯突出预测指标体系。然后运用深度学习中的卷积神经网络(CNN)搭建模型框架,结合鸬鹚搜索算法(COA)优化模型超参数,建立基于COA-CNN的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型。最后,建立支持向量机(SVM)、COA-SVM、人工神经网络(ANN)、COA-ANN、CNN模型进行对比验证,其中,COA-CNN模型预测结果的准确率最高,拥有更优的鲁棒性与泛化能力,可以为煤与瓦斯突出灾害的预测与防控提供更好的决策参考。

     

    Abstract: As coal mining continues to extend to deeper levels, the working face faces increasing geological pressure, the risk of gas release and accumulation significantly increases.Additionally, the physical properties and structural characteristics of coal seams in deep mines differ from those in shallow areas, further increasing the potential risk of coal and gas outbursts.In this study, based on data from a specific mine, the Boxplot and Multiple Imputation(MI)methods were applied for data cleaning.The influential factors were selected through correlation analysis, and a prediction index system for coal and gas outburst was established using the Boxplot-MI-C approach.Subsequently, a model framework based on Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)in deep learning was developed.The model hyperparameters were optimized using the Cormorant Optimization Algorithm(COA).This resulted in the establishment of a COA-CNN model for predicting coal and gas outburst.Support Vector Machine(SVM),COA-SVM,Artificial Neural Network(ANN),COA-ANN and CNN models were established for comparative validation.The results demonstrated that the SSA-CNN model achieved the highest accuracy in predicting outcomes, exhibiting superior robustness and generalization capability.This model can provide better decision-making references for the forecast and and control of coal and gas outburst disaster.

     

/

返回文章
返回